Mair Burd Flu - Teensy weeny bit more serious on the subject this
time.

"Wan flu over the Chickens Nest"

I am worried. Seriously worried ! You see, people on the other side of the planet are in a panic. And I'm not talking about hurricanes but the bird flu.

In Indonesia.

However neighbouring countries have been told that there's nothing to worry about.
And that is why I am worried.

Surely all should all be concerned when the disease is in a country that all ASEAN countries have strong ties with? All these years, they haven’t been able to stop Indonesians hopping on boats to arrive in their respective countries illegally, so what makes them think they are protected from bird flu?

South-East Asia is the epicentre of the epidemic. The disease now seems to be endemic here – that is, it’s not going to disappear any time soon. Even if you don’t import Indonesian chickens, legally or otherwise, the virus can still find its way here through migratory wild birds, which have taken the virus to as far away as Siberia.

This is not something we can afford to be relaxed about.

The issue at hand is not whether you can eat your chicken fried rice tomorrow.
Certainly, bird flu is a lethal killer for chickens – more than 100 million were killed in Asia last year, at devastating costs to the industry.

No, the apocalyptic eventuality that keeps some health experts awake at night is a global human flu pandemic. This would make last year’s tsunami look like a storm in a teacup. Billions infected. Tens of millions dead! Mass panic! Mass chaos! Hospitals overloaded! Food stocks dwindling! Nae Beer! The global economy in a wreck as trade drops! . Communities closing doors to outsiders! The army taking over? (horror story) Get the picture?

This isn’t a Hollywood drama. This isn’t about Scotland winning the World Cup. This is a real possibility.

Right now, this particular strain of the H5N1 virus rarely infects humans. But if it changes genetically to allow the virus to spread easily from person to person, then it will ignite a pandemic.

Nobody knows when and perhaps more realistically, if that change will happen! But the stage is set. Flu viruses change all the time – that’s why we get flu again and again (new strains). And as long as bird flu continues uncontrolled, as long as humans keep getting directly infected by sick birds, then we can expect that change to eventually happen.

Besides, pandemics happen fairly frequently – whenever a strain emerges that humans have no immunity from. The last one was in China in 1968, when 750,000 people died. The big one was in 1918, when up to 50 million people died (some say even 100 million).

This current strain looks nasty, very-very nasty. Roughly half the people infected have died. Given that we live in a very mobile, global world, it will spread rapidly. Remember SARS?

Governments are slowly realising that the most immediate threat to humanity is not Osama bin Laden or global warming but disease. Last week, even American President George Bush called for an “international partnership” to fight the disease.

Ironic isn’t it, a sick mind trying to prevent disease!

Some countries are stockpiling anti-flu drugs. Indonesia cannot afford this medication, the amount of money required each month to import drugs would probably equal the monthly bill for the importation of petrol. In a nutshell they are f**ked. The press in Britain has reported that they are even looking for sites for mass mortuaries.

What chance has Indonesia got!

But no country is prepared. A vaccine is not even ready. (Don’t perform heinous sexual acts on Chickens would be start!)

Surely then, we should try to stop outbreaks happening in the first place here in Asia. Reduce infection and you reduce the chances for the virus to transform.
Why is bird flu so persistent in Asia and not elsewhere? Basically, because of the way they breed and kill chickens.

It is common to have farms in backyards, where humans, chickens and ducks (a natural host for the virus) all live closely together. Most chickens in Asia are reared in backyard farms. No wonder that the disease has been so severe throughout the area.
Plus there’s a lot more poultry (and people) these days – in China, the poultry population has risen from 12 million in 1968 to 13 billion today. (No one child policy in China for Chickens & Ducks)

Another Asian practice is slaughtering live birds in markets. Blood from an infected bird flowing freely is hazardous. Also, have you seen how the birds are kept? Chicken faeces – which carries the virus in infected birds – often goes un-cleaned in cages and on the floor. How often do markets get cleaned?

Most people I know buy their chickens frozen, however, the fresh ones on the supermarket shelf come from the local markets as described above.

Maybe a pandemic will never happen. But I don’t think we should just wait to find out. Governments should stay on high alert and, meanwhile, improve the way chickens are reared and killed. That’s something we should do anyway. But do you think the average guy slaughtering chicken in the market has any idea that he might start the next pandemic?

I think not.